Posted at Thu Nov 21 2013
How would you set K K Q 7 8?
Although this seems like a simple question, it produces two extreme support groups.
One group is confident that playing aggressive and setting for Fantasy Land is the right play. They would set it Q / K K / 7 8 at bottom.
The other group opts for the conservative route and wants to set it -- / K K / Q 7 8 at bottom.
So who’s right?
I was curious so I used Warren’s OFC Simulator and ran some simulations for only spade cards against a random board of -- / A 7 / T 9 9. Here was the result.
As you can see, playing aggressive and going for Fantasy Land produces superior results. Drawing a Queen and getting to Fantasy Land makes up for the loss of equity when fouling.
Then I got more curious.
How would a club on the first draw changes Hero's equity?
Wow. Drawing a club on the first draw gave Hero almost a 10 points advantage. Now I really want to know what the answer is so I ran simulations for all the cards on the first draw.
As it turns out, the results are super close. In my simulations, setting it -- / K K / Q 7 8 at bottom is slightly better. However, this could be due to variance and there are days when setting it Q / K K / 7 8 at bottom produces better results.
In the final analysis, if you want to play a high variance game or feeling lucky, set Q / K K / 7 8 at bottom. If you want to lower variance, set it -- / K K / Q 7 8 at bottom. Below is the simulations for all cards on the first draw. Drawing the 9 is the gin card when going for Fantasy Land.