How would you set KhKQc7c8c?

Posted at Thu Nov 21 2013

How would you set KImage KImage QImage 7Image 8Image?

Although this seems like a simple question, it produces two extreme support groups.

One group is confident that playing aggressive and setting for Fantasy Land is the right play. They would set it QImage / KImage KImage / 7Image 8Image at bottom.

The other group opts for the conservative route and wants to set it -- / KImage KImage / QImage 7Image 8Image at bottom.

So who’s right?

I was curious so I used Warren’s OFC Simulator and ran some simulations for only spade cards against a random board of -- / AImage 7Image / TImage 9Image 9Image. Here was the result.

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As you can see, playing aggressive and going for Fantasy Land produces superior results. Drawing a Queen and getting to Fantasy Land makes up for the loss of equity when fouling.

Then I got more curious.

How would a club on the first draw changes Hero's equity?

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Wow. Drawing a club on the first draw gave Hero almost a 10 points advantage. Now I really want to know what the answer is so I ran simulations for all the cards on the first draw.

As it turns out, the results are super close. In my simulations, setting it -- / KImage KImage / QImage 7Image 8Image at bottom is slightly better. However, this could be due to variance and there are days when setting it QImage / KImage KImage / 7Image 8Image at bottom produces better results.

In the final analysis, if you want to play a high variance game or feeling lucky, set QImage / KImage KImage / 7Image 8Image at bottom. If you want to lower variance, set it -- / KImage KImage / QImage 7Image 8Image at bottom. Below is the simulations for all cards on the first draw. Drawing the 9Image is the gin card when going for Fantasy Land.

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