Posted at Mon Dec 30 2013
I was discussing OFC strategies with probably the best OFC player in the world, Shaun Deeb, and he brought up an interesting starting hand theory: a 2-card flush draw with a big kicker is better than a 3-card straight draw.
This sounds ambitious because it’s difficult to make a flush when you start out with only 2 cards. However, he has been crushing high-stakes OFC this past year so I was curious and used Warren’s OFC Simulator to test his theory.
Suppose Villain has 8 7 3 J 5 and set it:
Hero has K 5 6 7 9. How would you set it?
To figure out what is the correct play, I ran simulations for each of the 42 cards for each starting hand.
Which hand did you think do well?
7 6 5 / K 9 (back) does the worst by far. However, one interesting note is that if you remove the spades, the equity among the hands are comparable.
But once I add the spades equity, 5 6 9 / K 7 (back) crushes the other two. This is due to the increase possibility of drawing to a flush in the back.
In the final, analysis, you rather have a 2-card flush draw with a big kicker than 3-card straight draw and probably a 4-card gutshot straight draw.
If you want to explore more cool situations, make sure to use Warren’s OFC Simulator to help you figure out the correct equity play.